Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt

The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios have become the standard reference for climate change in the UK since their release in 2002. This paper describes and reflects on the ways in which they have been applied. It then identifies some strengths, weaknesses and barriers to their application, and extracts key lessons that may inform the development and provision of future climate change scenarios.Analysis of the application of UKCIP02 shows that the scenarios have been used primarily as a communication device, as well as for scientific research and to inform policy and decision-making on climate change. They have played a critical role in raising awareness on climate change and in engaging organisations in the need to adapt. Their presentation in an accessible style, and their availability in a variety of formats, greatly facilitated their uptake. However, analysis has also revealed weaknesses which served as barriers to their uptake. Some of these, such as file format and accessibility issues, were readily overcome through technical solutions. Others, such as the issue of how to use uncertain information in decision-making, have only been partially addressed and remain an outstanding challenge for future scenario packages. Two key lessons have emerged which may benefit the provision of future climate scenarios in the UK and elsewhere. First, it is not enough to simply make climate change scenarios available. Their provision must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support to ensure widespread and appropriate uptake. Second, on-going dialogue between those providing scenarios and the communities using them is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with delivering credible scenarios that balance user requirements and expectations with what the science can deliver.     

WASP-1b and WASP-2b: two new transiting exoplanets detected with SuperWASP and SOPHIE

We have detected low-amplitude radial-velocity variations in two stars, USNO-B1.0 1219–0005465 (GSC  02265–00107 = WASP–1  ) and USNO-B1.0 0964–0543604 (GSC  00522–01199 = WASP–2  ). Both stars were identified as being likely host stars of transiting exoplanets in the 2004 SuperWASP wide-field transit survey. Using the newly commissioned radial-velocity spectrograph SOPHIE at the Observatoire de Haute-Provence, we found that both objects exhibit reflex orbital radial-velocity variations with amplitudes characteristic of planetary-mass companions and in-phase with the photometric orbits. Line-bisector studies rule out faint blended binaries as the cause of either the radial-velocity variations or the transits. We perform preliminary spectral analyses of the host stars, which together with their radial-velocity variations and fits to the transit light curves yield estimates of the planetary masses and radii. WASP-1b and WASP-2b have orbital periods of 2.52 and 2.15 d, respectively. Given mass estimates for their F7V and K1V primaries, we derive planet masses 0.80–0.98 and 0.81–0.95 times that of Jupiter, respectively. WASP-1b appears to have an inflated radius of at least 1.33 R _Jup, whereas WASP-2b has a radius in the range 0.65–1.26 R _Jup.     

Enhancing the value of adaptation reporting as a driver for action: lessons from the UK

ABSTRACT

As increasing evidence shows that the risks of climate change are mounting, there is a call for further climate action (both reducing global emissions, and adaptation to better manage the risks of climate change). To promote and enable adaptation, governments have introduced, or are considering introducing, reporting on climate risks and efforts being taken to address those risks. This paper reports on an analysis of the first two rounds of such reports submitted under the UK Climate Change Act (2008) Adaptation Reporting Power. It highlights benefits and challenges for reporting authorities and policymakers receiving the reports that could also inform other countries considering such reporting. For reporting authorities, benefits arise from the reporting process and resulting reports. These benefits include elevating climate risks and adaptation to the corporate level and with stakeholders, alongside facilitating alignment and integration of actions within existing risk management and governance structures. For policymakers, reporting provides enhanced understanding of climate risks and actions from a bottom-up perspective that can be integrated into national-level assessments and adaptation planning processes. The identified challenges are those related to capacity and process. These include limited risk and adaptation assessment capacities; relevance of climate change risks and adaptation in the context of other urgent risks and actions; reporting process effectiveness and robustness; and the provision of effective and sufficiently comprehensive support, including feedback.

Key policy insights

• Effective adaptation reporting needs to be designed and delivered so as to enhance the value of the reporting process and resulting reports both for those reporting and those receiving the reports, as well as from the broader policy perspective.

• Providing a positive and supportive reporting environment is critical to encourage participation and facilitating contiuous learning and improvement, while also facilitating delivery of policy-relevant adaptation reports.

• Contributions of adaptation reporting can be enhanced by an inclusive reporting requirement involving a broader organizational mix that enables more effective risk management and reporting that reflects associated (inter)dependencies and consistency with the more comprehensive post-2015 resilience agenda (Paris Agreement, Sendai Framework for DRR and UN Agenda 2030 SDGs).

     

Results from the Wide Angle Search for Planets Prototype (WASP0) – II. Stellar variability in the Pegasus field

Recent wide field photometric surveys, which target a specific field for long durations, are ideal for studying both long- and short-period stellar variability. Here, we report on 75 variable stars detected during the observations of a field in Pegasus using the Wide Angle Search for Planets Prototype (WASP0) instrument, 73 of which are new discoveries. The variables detected include 16 δ Scuti stars, 34 eclipsing binaries, 3 BY Draconis stars and 4 RR Lyraes. We estimate that the fraction of stars in the field brighter than   V ∼ 13.5  exhibiting variable behaviour with an amplitude greater than 0.6 per cent rms is ∼0.4 per cent. These results are compared with other wide field stellar variability surveys, and implications for detecting transits due to extra-solar planets are discussed.     

Variable stars in the field of open cluster NGC 6819

We report on the discovery of 25 variable stars plus 13 suspected variables found in the field of the open cluster NGC 6819. The stars were identified from time-series photometric data obtained on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma, during two observing runs covering the 19 nights between 1999 June  22–30  and 1999 July  22–31  . The variables found include 12 eclipsing binaries with an additional three suspected, nine BY Draconis systems, plus four variables of other types, including one star believed to be a Cepheid. Three of the 15 eclipsing binaries are believed to be cluster members. Details of a further 10 suspected variable stars are also included.     

Mechanism and Modes of Microbial Minerogenesis of Polymetallic Nodules on the Ocean Floor

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the relations of the occurrence of polymetallic nodules with the geochemical actions of microbes in the seawater, pore water and sediments at the bottom of the eastern Pacific Ocean basin. Emphasis is laid on the relations of the activity intensity and biochemical transformation rate of aerobic bacteria (iron bacteria, Thiobacillus thioparus, halobacteria and manganese-oxidizing bacteria) and anaerobic bacteria (sulphate-reducing bacteria, denitrifying bacteria, Thiobacillus denitrificans) with mineralization. The experimental research on the migration and accumulation of ore-forming elements caused by microbial and chemical actions shows that the microbes have changed the conditions of oxidation and reduction in the system, and their effect on the element precipitation is much stronger than the chemical actions and accelerates the enrichment of Fe and Mn. It demonstrates that the microbes can change the environment to promote the accumulation of ore-formin     

A shallow seismic refraction study of the Versailles cryptoexplosion structure,central Kentucky

Abstract— The Versailles cryptoexplosion structure, located in central Kentucky, contains a partially brecciated central uplift and a boundary marked by arcuate faulting. Seismic refraction data were used to divide the structure into distinct units on the basis of velocity. A zone of brecciated material shows a decrease in velocity compared with surrounding rocks. Locally thickened strata are present on the flanks of the central uplift. An increase of the bedrock velocity in the area surrounding the structure suggests localized dolomization of fractured bedrock, and a plug of fractured strata near the base of the brecciation appears to be uplifted. Based on the geometry of deformation seen in known impact structures, and the integration of this study with previous geological and geophysical work in the area, it is suggested that our results support the interpretation of the Versailles structure as an eroded astrobleme (Black, 1964b; Seeger, 1972).     

Global maps of lake-level fluctuations since 30,000 yr B.P.

This paper presents selected world maps of lake-level fluctuations since 30,000 yr B.P. These are based on a literature survey of 141 lake basins with radiocarbon-dated chronologies. The resulting patterns are subcontinental in scale and show orderly variations in space and time. They reflect substantial changes in continental precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, which are due to glacial/interglacial fluctuations in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations. In the tropics, high lake levels are essentially an interglacial or interstadial phenomenon, although there are important exceptions. Since extensive lakes during the Holocene corresponded with relatively high sea-surface temperatures, and therefore presumably with high evaporation rates on land, they are interpreted as the result of higher precipitation. Tropical aridity culminated in most areas at, or just after, the glacial maximum, although the present day is also characterized by a below-average abundance of surface water. In extratropical regions the mapped patterns are more complex. They vary markedly with latitude and proximity to major ice sheets. In these areas, evidence is at present insufficient to evaluate the relative contributions of precipitation and temperature to the observed lake-level record.     

Numerical Simulation of Strongly Stratified Flow Over a Three-Dimensional Hill

A numerical study of stably stratified flow over a three-dimensional hill is presented. Large-eddy simulation is used here to examine in detail the laboratory experimental flows described in the landmark work of Hunt and Snyder about stratified flow over a hill. The flow is linearly stratified and U/Nh is varied from 0.2 to 1.0. Here N and U are the buoyancy frequency and freestream velocity respectively, and h is the height of the hill. The Reynolds number based on the hill height is varied from 365 to 2968. The characteristic flow patterns at various values of U/Nh have been obtained and they are in good agreement with earlier theoretical and experimental results. It is shown that the flow field cannot be predicted by Drazin's theory when recirculation exists at the leeside of the hill even at UNh 1. The wake structure agrees well with a two-dimensional wake assumption when U/Nh 1 but lee waves start to influence the wake structure as U/Nh increases. The dividing-streamline heights obtained in the simulation are in accordance with experimental results and Sheppard's formula. The energy loss along the dividing streamline due to friction/turbulence approximately offsets the energy gained from pressure field. When lee waves are present, linear theory always underestimates the amplitude and overestimates the wavelength of three-dimensional lee waves. The simulated variations of drag coefficients with the parameterK (=ND/ U) are qualitatively consistent with experimental data and linear theory. Here D is the depth of the tank.